Explain what forecast error is and how you used it to ascertain the most optimal forecasting model.

Instructions:

Review “Forecasting Case Study: Urban Planning” for this topic’s case study, in which you will serve as an urban planner forecasting economic growth and decline for a specific industry in your city.

Students must access the “County Business Patterns” webpage (https://www.census.gov/econ/cbp/index.html) for this assignment. Students will use this U.S. Census Industry data portal to access data for a zip code with which you are familiar. This can be the zip code of your personal residence, location of employer (corporate, regional, or local office), undergraduate educational institution, hometown, etc.

In addition to the forecasting model and data, prepare a 500-750-word report to your city manager. Explain your approach and the rationale for why this is the best model. Evaluate the data and conclude your report with a recommendation about either expanding the industry in your area or allocating resources elsewhere.

Use an Excel spreadsheet file for the calculations and explanations. Cells should contain the formulas (i.e., if a formula was used to calculate the entry in that cell). Students are highly encouraged to use the “Forecasting Template” Excel resource to complete this assignment.

Prepare the written portion of this assignment according to the guidelines found in the APA Style Guide, located in the Student Success Center. An abstract is not required.

This assignment uses a rubric. Please review the rubric prior to beginning the assignment to become familiar with the expectations for successful completion.

Information:

Forecasting Case Study: Urban Planning

Important Note: Students must access the “County Business Patterns” Topic Material for this assignment. Students will use this U.S. Census Industry data portal to access data for a zip code with which you are familiar. This can be the zip code of your personal residence, location of employer (corporate, regional, or local office), undergraduate educational institution, hometown, etc.

Scenario

You have recently been hired as an urban planner for your local government. You have been tasked with determining economic growth and decline patterns in your area. As an urban planner, you will ultimately be responsible for determining patterns and forecasting for all industries within your area. However, the city manager has asked that you prioritize one of the 10 industries below. Business proposals have been submitted and the city manager would like to have use forecasting data to make an informed decision about whether to approve industry expansion or to allocate resources elsewhere.

Industries

  • Construction
  • Manufacturing
  • Transportation and Warehousing
  • Information
  • Finance and Insurance
  • Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
  • Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
  • Management of Companies and Enterprises
  • Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services
  • Health Care and Social Assistance

Forecasting

Access the “County Business Patterns” page on the United States Census Bureau website and enter your city’s zip code. Using one of the industries above, access the data for the last 5 years that are available on website. Determine patterns of economic growth or decline during this time period, and develop the most optimal forecasting model for the next 2 years. Note that you will need to set up these two forecast calculations.

Clearly justify why your selected model is the best one. Specifically explain what forecast error is and how you used it to ascertain the most optimal forecasting model. Assume that you are ion:

 

Rubric:

Forecasting Case Study: Urban Planning 

  1
Unsatisfactory
0.00%
2
Less than Satisfactory
74.00%
3
Satisfactory
79.00%
4
Good
87.00%
5
Excellent
100.00%
70.0 %Content  
15.0 %Determine Patterns of Economic Growth or Decline A prediction of final scores and the statistical significance is not included. A prediction of final scores and the statistical significance is present, but it is inaccurate or incomplete. A basic prediction of final scores and the statistical significance is present. A prediction of final scores and the statistical significance is clearly provided and well-developed. A precise prediction of final scores and the statistical significance is thoroughly developed with supporting details.
15.0 %Develop a 2-Year Forecasting Model A recommendation of whether a particular store location should be closed is not included. A recommendation of whether a particular store location should be closed is included, but it lacks detail or is incomplete. A recommendation of whether a particular store location should be closed is included. A clear recommendation of whether a particular store location should be closed is provided and well-developed. A comprehensive recommendation of whether a particular store location should be closed is thoroughly developed with supporting details.
15.0 %Explain Approach and Rationale An explanation of the approach and rationale for method used to provide predictions and recommendation is not included. An explanation of the approach and rationale for method used to provide predictions and recommendation is included, but it lacks detail or is incomplete. An explanation of the approach and rationale for method used to provide predictions and recommendation is included. A clear explanation of the approach and rationale for method used to provide predictions and recommendation is included. A comprehensive explanation of the approach and rationale for method used to provide predictions and recommendation is thoroughly developed with supporting details.
15.0 %Evaluate Data and Recommend Resource Allocation An evaluation of the data and a recommendation about either expanding the industry in the selected area or allocating resources elsewhere is not included. An evaluation of the data and a recommendation about either expanding the industry in the selected area or allocating resources elsewhere is included, but it lacks detail or is incomplete. An evaluation of the data and a recommendation about either expanding the industry in the selected area or allocating resources elsewhere is included. A complete evaluation of the data and a clear recommendation about either expanding the industry in the selected area or allocating resources elsewhere is included. A comprehensive evaluation of the data and a thorough recommendation about either expanding the industry in the selected area or allocating resources elsewhere is thoroughly developed with supporting details is included.
10.0 %Excel Spreadsheet A copy of the Excel spreadsheet file used for calculations and explanations is not included. A copy of the Excel spreadsheet file used for calculations and explanations is included but lacks accuracy or is incomplete. A copy of the Excel spreadsheet file used for calculations and explanations is included. A complete copy of the Excel spreadsheet file used for calculations and explanations is included. A detailed and accurate copy of the Excel spreadsheet file used for calculations and explanations is included.
20.0 %Organization and Effectiveness  
7.0 %Thesis Development and Purpose Paper lacks any discernible overall purpose or organizing claim. Thesis is insufficiently developed or vague. Purpose is not clear. Thesis is apparent and appropriate to purpose. Thesis is clear and forecasts the development of the paper. Thesis is descriptive and reflective of the arguments and appropriate to the purpose. Thesis is comprehensive and contains the essence of the paper. Thesis statement makes the purpose of the paper clear.
8.0 %Argument Logic and Construction Statement of purpose is not justified by the conclusion. The conclusion does not support the claim made. Argument is incoherent and uses noncredible sources. Sufficient justification of claims is lacking. Argument lacks consistent unity. There are obvious flaws in the logic. Some sources have questionable credibility. Argument is orderly, but may have a few inconsistencies. The argument presents minimal justification of claims. Argument logically, but not thoroughly, supports the purpose. Sources used are credible. Introduction and conclusion bracket the thesis. Argument shows logical progressions. Techniques of argumentation are evident. There is a smooth progression of claims from introduction to conclusion. Most sources are authoritative. Clear and convincing argument that presents a persuasive claim in a distinctive and compelling manner. All sources are authoritative.
5.0 %Mechanics of Writing (includes spelling, punctuation, grammar, language use) Surface errors are pervasive enough that they impede communication of meaning. Inappropriate word choice or sentence construction is used. Frequent and repetitive mechanical errors distract the reader. Inconsistencies in language choice (register) or word choice are present. Sentence structure is correct but not varied. Some mechanical errors or typos are present, but they are not overly distracting to the reader. Correct and varied sentence structure and audience-appropriate language are employed. Prose is largely free of mechanical errors, although a few may be present. The writer uses a variety of effective sentence structures and figures of speech. Writer is clearly in command of standard, written, academic English.
10.0 %Format  
5.0 %Paper Format (use of appropriate style for the major and assignment) Template is not used appropriately or documentation format is rarely followed correctly. Appropriate template is used, but some elements are missing or mistaken. A lack of control with formatting is apparent. Appropriate template is used. Formatting is correct, although some minor errors may be present. Appropriate template is fully used. There are virtually no errors in formatting style. All format elements are correct.
5.0 %Documentation of Sources (citations, footnotes, references, bibliography, etc., as appropriate to assignment and style) Sources are not documented. Documentation of sources is inconsistent or incorrect, as appropriate to assignment and style, with numerous formatting errors. Sources are documented, as appropriate to assignment and style, although some formatting errors may be present. Sources are documented, as appropriate to assignment and style, and format is mostly correct. Sources are completely and correctly documented, as appropriate to assignment and style, and format is free of error.
100 %Total Weightage  

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