Ms. Winnie Lin’s company sells computers. Monthly sales for a six-month period are as follows:

Month Sales

Jan 18,000

Feb 22,000

Mar 16,000

Apr 18,000

May 20,000

Jun 24,000

*Plot the monthly data on a sheet of graph paper or plot on excel*
*Compute the sales forecast for July using the following approaches*: (1) a four-month moving average; (2) a weighted three-month moving average using .50 for June, .30 for May and .20 for April; (3) a linear trend equation (4) exponential smoothing with a (smoothing constant) equal to .40, assuming a February forecast of 18,000
*Which method is the least appropriate? Why?*

- The forecasts generated by two forecasting methods and actual sales are as follows:

Month Sales Forecast 1 Forecast 2

1 269 275 268

2 289 266 287

3 294 290 292

4 278 284 298

5 268 270 274

6 269 268 270

7 260 261 259

8 275 271 275

*Compute the MSE, the MAD, the MAPE, and the RSFE and the tracking signal for each forecasting method. Which method is better? Why?*

- Given the following production plan, use a (a)
*chase production strategy* and (b) *level production strategy to compute the monthly production, ending inventory/(backlog) and workforce levels.* A worker can produce 50 units per month. Assume that the beginning inventory in January is 500 units, and the firm desires to have 200 of the inventory at the end of June.

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

**Demand** 2000 3000 5000 6000 6000 2000

**Production**

**Ending Inventory**

**Workforce**

**
**

- Given the following production schedule,
*compute the available-to-promise quantities.*
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

**Model B**

**MPS** BI=20 20 0 20 20 0 20 20 20

**Committed customer orders**10 10 10 10 10 0 0 10

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