Which aspect of evaluating the effectiveness of using structured analytic techniques is the same whether one uses the key assumptions check, cross-impact matrix, or indicators validator?
A.Comparing individual with groups efforts that use the technique
B.Testing whether an analyst can challenge his or her own assumptions
C.Applying the technique to published indicators to see how many are validated
D.Interviewing analysts after they have used the technique to identify lessons learn
An analyst keeps having problems with one of his colleagues on a project. Each time he makes a change to suit her demands he ends up facing a new demand requiring even more changes. Finally, he decides that if they are ever going to complete this project, he must figure out exactly what her true interests are. In doing so, he hopes to cause a shift in which aspect of her conflict style?
Following a very public, embarrassing failure, an intelligence organization worked hard to poll the needs, interests, and perspectives of its members in order to design a new conflict management system. The system worked very well until changes in the security environment forced changes the working conditions of its members, requiring more time away from home for work, lowering expense accounts, and reducing off-site advanced training opportunities. The organization’s members began complaining that their conflict management system no longer met their needs. What went wrong with the system that was established after the failure?
A.Nothing went wrong. Organizations are only as good as the people in it, so that went the its members develop a sense of entitlement the organization will see its conflict management system fail
B.Nothing went wrong. All functioning organizations are living entities in a constant state of change whose conflict management systems must be adapted to meet the demands of new conditions
C.The organization’s members spent too much time away from home working and not enough time training, which led to a decline in the overall readiness of the organization to meet new challenges
D.The organization’s leadership did not sufficiently involved the organizations members in the conflict management system design process, which led to a lack of commitment on the members’ part
What recommendation do Heuer & Pherson make regarding the composition of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI)?
A.To create a new chair of research and development to consolidate lessons learned from within the intelligence community
B.To establish a new position to promote analytical tradecraft in the intelligence community based on lessons learned from recent operations
C.To create a new position to disseminate best practices for intelligence analysis from the strategic level down to tactical organizations with less funding
D.To increase the number of analysts working direction for the Director of National Intelligence under the direction of a vice chair for analytical tradecraft
An analyst reviews several recent studies published in the Journal of Law and Human Behavior about the detection of deception in human subject so that he can better evaluate the validity of a HUMINT source. What type of resource is he using?
A.Academic research published in a peer-reviewed journal
B.A non-governmental organization
C.A government-sponsored think tank
D.The research of a single subject matter expert in his or her field
An analyst has been tasked to produce an assessment of criticality on members of a criminal organization. He has already established which members have the highest measures of centrality. What MUST he also do to complete his assessment?
A.Cross reference the relationships’ driving forces with their motivations
B.Analyze the centrality of the members’ relationships
C.Analyze the functionality of the members’ relationships
D.Cross reference the ‘in’ measures of centrality with the ‘out’ measures of centrality
A military intelligence analyst has been tasked to provide a list of most likely routes an enemy will use to evacuate an area in response to an attack. She reviews intelligence information reports to determine which means of transportation an enemy uses, she conducts an analysis of the terrain to identify possible pathways of egress, and she produces a report responding to the tasking. Which structured analytic technique did she use?
B.Analysis of competing hypotheses
C.Chronologies and timelines
According to Heuer and Pherson (2012), what is the likelihood that the use of structured analytic techniques will increase within the intelligence community?
A.A new generation of analysts will bring to the intelligence community a direct support for structured analytic techniques thanks to their indirect support of social networking
B.An increase in the use of structure analytic techniques depends on an increase in a culture of sharing and collaboration within the intelligence community influencing analytical tradecraft
C.An increase in the use of structured analytic techniques depends on a decrease in funding within the intelligence community that forces the use of more efficient techniques
D.As traditional mentors, facilitators, and knowledge managers retire from the intelligence community they will make room for analysts supporting structured analytic techniques
Analysts might use Microsoft Project to model a complex procedure using a matrix that cross references tasks in a process by estimated time periods required for each task. What is the name of this structured analytic technique?
B.Delphi analysis chart
D.Network analysis chart
Based on a review of recent police reporting, an analyst notices that several incidents of assault in a particular neighborhood involve gay men as their victims. He makes the recommendation that police patrols pass more frequently through the area during the time of day when the crimes have occurred and that the police liaison officer to the gay community include the neighborhood on a list of areas where the department recommends gay men take precautions against assault. Which phrase best describes the form of reasoning he used?
What alternative to the Structured Brainstorming technique should an analyst be aware of if he or she finds that either a senior official is dominating the brainstorming session or junior personnel seem reluctant to participate?
B.Nominal group technique
C.Key assumptions check
Red hat analysis is the most accurate when applied to understanding the behaviors of:
A.Leaders influenced by conflicting interest groups
B.Large terrorist organization
C.A specific legislative organization
D.A specific authoritarian leader
An intelligence organization manages conflict by deferring to whomever has the highest rank. Which conflict management model does this organization use?
A national intelligence analyst is attempting to determine a timeline for when political uprisings in Iran will reach a tipping point leading to the overthrow of the government. Which characteristic of this complex system will prevent her from establishing an accurate timeline?
During the exploitation phase, an analyst reviews the results of a spatial regression analysis in which he has found a statistically significant clustering within his model’s residuals using a Moran’s I test of spatial autocorrelation. Which statement best describes how he interprets this information?
A.His model applies less well in some areas of his analysis than in others
B.His model is equally useful in all the areas covered by his analysis
C.His model contains processing errors that render it virtually useless
D.His model contains variables that explain all of the dependent variable
Which statement describes a driving force behind the development and use of structured analytical techniques?
A.Prominent intelligence successes that have prompted a reexamination of how intelligence analysis is generated
B.A lack of policy support and technical support for interagency collaboration from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence
C.A desire by policymakers who receive analysis that it be more transparent as to how the conclusions were reached
D.A decreased appreciation of cognitive limitations and pitfalls that make intelligence analysis difficult
What is one of the differences between advocacy and objective inquiry in a group decision-making process?
A.Advocacy strives to persuade others but remains open to alternatives while objective inquiry presents balanced arguments but defends the speaker’s position
B.Advocacy uses discussion to persuade and evaluate while objective inquiry uses discussion to test and lobby
C.Advocacy views participants as critical thinkers while objective inquiry views participants as spokespeople for their positions
D.Advocacy views outcomes in terms of winners and losers while objective inquiry views outcomes as the product of collective ownership
Which statement best describes one of the challenges Lowenthal identifies within the intelligence community to building a knowledge base of lessons learned?
A.“We don’t have time to stop everything else we have going on just to summarize work we’ve already done.”
B.“I already integrate self-reflection into assessments of my work.”
C.“We are ultimately responsible for policy makers’ poor choices based on our intelligence products.”
D.“Someone else is welcome to review my work, but I don’t have time to do it myself.”
An analyst polled several subject matter experts about a question she is tackling as part of an intelligence problem. She collated all the responses into a single packet, removed the names of the experts, and then sent the whole packet to each expert for their revised assessments. She repeated this process several times before preparing a final report. Which structured analytic technique did the analyst use?
A.What if? analysis
When using a decision matrix, based on what should the weights for each criterion be assigned?
A.A percentile distribution
B.Their order of priority
D.The number of options
An analyst needed to determine the validity of GEOINT information. She verifies that the collection platform was in good operating order at the time the imagery was collected. She verifies that the procedure used to process the GEOINT information conformed to standard operating procedures. She then verifies that the processed intelligence information was not damaged or corrupted in the storage and retrieval procedures used to access it for her exploitation. Finally, she concludes the GEOINT information is valid. Which phrase best describes the form of reasoning she used?
An analyst is faced with a complex intelligence problem and he is concerned about avoiding “mission creep”. To make sure he is focus on the core issue, he rephrases that problem several times, asking “why” and “how” until he is satisfied he understands the parameters of the question he is trying to answer. He takes a broad perspective on the issue to see where it might connect to other related issues, and then a narrow perspective to see how far he can break it down into its component parts. He redirects his focus from seeing the issue as identifying threats to seeing it as identifying opportunities to counter threats. Finally, he restates the problem in its exact opposite terms to explore other ways of seeing the issue. What structured analytic technique is he using?
A local law enforcement analyst establishes contact with a local university to acquire data on seismic activity in the area as part of a vulnerability assessment he is producing. Which type of intelligence information is he acquiring?
Which structured analytic technique works best early in a project dealing with a complex issue with many interrelated parts, usually following a brainstorming session held to identify all the variables, drivers, or players that may influence the outcome of a situation?
Which structured analytic technique is called for upon the failure of adversarial collaboration?
B.Key assumptions check
D.The Nosenko approach
Which of the following visions do Heuer and Pherson (2012) imagine with regard to the state of structured analytic techniques by the year 2015?
A.Structured analytic techniques have relieved the intelligence community of the need to exploit outside experts, especially cultural experts
B.Intelligence analysts will have embraced collaborative information sharing tools to the point where structured analytic techniques are no longer necessary
C.The process for creating a National Intelligence Estimate has remained the same, but the use of structured analytic technique has improved accuracy
D.The National Intelligence Council has become a leader in the use of structured analytic techniques, as more of its products benefit from their use
An analyst disagrees with one of her colleagues’ initial intelligence assessment. When she approaches him about it, he seems highly cooperative but does not respond to any of her concerns when she outlines them. Thinking that perhaps she would benefit from a better understanding of his thought processes, she asks him to explain how he developed his assessment, but he only replies that he used “the software” and does not elaborate any further. She says that she would like to work with him to explore some possible changes to the report, but he replies that he will make any changes that she feels are important. Which conflict style is he using?
A.The smoothing version of the avoiding style
B.The yielding version of the accommodating style
C.The flexible compromising version of the compromising style
D.The protecting version of the avoiding style
What is one of the limits of the quadrant hypothesis generation technique?
A.It only applies to cases where more than two driving forces determine the outcome
B.It requires the construction of a matrix of the drivers
C.It depends on correctly identifying the outcome’s driving forces
D.It cannot represent the extreme conditions for the major drivers
An analyst identifies areas of her work on a case where she experienced usual successes and failures. She attempts to determine the reasons behind them, records the actions she took to correct issues as they emerged, and assigns a value to the effectiveness of those actions. Which phrase best describes what she is doing?
A.Building a historical record of the case
B.Managing uncertainties in her analysis
C.Producing a lessons learned report for the case
D.Performing quality control on her work
During a conversation with a young intelligence analyst she confesses to you her frustration with the office where she works because she spends most of her day preparing PowerPoint briefings based on products that only the more experienced analysts are allowed to create. Which is the most likely approach her organization takes to intelligence analysis?
A.The research approach
B.The structured approach
C.The traditional approach
D.The target-centric approach
An analyst is conducting social network analysis and he needs to be able to show directional relationships. Which type of matrix will he use to organize the data?
A competitive intelligence analyst monitors the health insurance industry. This industry includes a diverse number of connected organizations, but in order to determine if it is a complex system, the analyst must also know whether or not the organizations are:
Which structured analytic technique is integrated into analysis of competing hypotheses and indicators validator?
A criminal intelligence organization manages its analysts’ workload by tracking each case as having a distinct beginning and ending. It tends to view intelligence analysis as a:
Which structured analytic technique pits driving forces against the restraining forces in order to encourage an analyst to think through the factors that influence a situation?
C.Force field analysis
A criminal intelligence analyst has extensive experience working financial fraud cases in a white-collar crimes division. She receives a new case but only skims the packet because she has seen these types of cases so many times before she feels like she already knows how to proceed. In doing so, she has failed to acknowledge that:
A.Abductive reasoning contains an auditing function
B.Deductive reasoning is inherently deterministic
C.Inductive reasoning is inherently probabilistic
D.Analysis of competing hypotheses contains an auditing function
Which of the following is a benefit collaborative working groups receive from diversity?
A.Alternative perspectives generated through the devil’s advocacy technique
B.Identification of options that would have otherwise gone undetected
C.Early consensus achieved through the consolidation of perspectives
D.More efficient management of communication by a group leader
An analyst working for the Air Force receives a phone call from a colleague in the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). The FBI colleague asks if she would task an Air Force MASINT collection platform to collect on a US company in Mississippi under investigation for criminal dumping in violation of federal law with the intention of using the information in court. Which statement best describes the analyst’s most likely response?
A.The military is prohibited from collecting intelligence on targets without a foreign-military nexus
B.The military is prohibited from collecting MASINT within the territory of the United States
C.The military is prohibited from collecting MASINT, which is controlled by the National Security Agency
D.The military is prohibited from collecting intelligence at the request of a law enforcement agency
Which is one of the limits of empirical testing on structured analytic techniques?
A.When testing a structured analytic technique, research places more emphasis on implementing the same procedures used in the intelligence community than is necessary to replicate real world results
B.Testing is usually conducted on techniques borrowed from other industries, which are inherently less effective than techniques originally developed from within the intelligence community itself
C.Because of the complexity of structured analytic techniques, testing can only evaluate one part of a technique at a time even though the true advantages of a technique depend on the synthesis of its parts
D.Due to the expense of testing group performance, individual performance is typically the subject of analysis even though structured analytic techniques are most effective when applied in small groups
An analyst is working independently on a project to generate at least four different scenarios that he will cross reference with driving forces how he expects the project’s central issue will evolve. Which structured analytical technique is he using?
A.Alternative futures analysis
B.Multiple scenario generation